An Empirical Analysis on Determinants of Soft Power

• In Event: Public Opinion Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

What determines a country's soft power? The concept of soft power, proposed by Joseph Nye, has received much attention, but literature on the subject still suffers from a dearth of empirical analyses. The few that exist focus on soft power’s effects, but not its origins. Nye lays out three “currencies” (origins): the attractiveness and legitimacy of (1) culture, (2) political values, and (3) foreign policies, but these have not been empirically tested. In our paper, we aim to examine what factors contribute to a country’s soft power. Employing the Pew Research Center’s Global Public Attitude Survey 2015 among 226 dyads of states, we run a regression analysis with soft power as a dependent variable. We measure soft power of a country by the public favorability toward that country by the people of another country. As power is inherently relational, soft power should be measured in a dyadic fashion. Contrary to widespread belief, we find that a country’s attractiveness abroad is not affected by cultural factors, but rather by elements of hard power. We find that elements of “hard” power, such as security ties, trade dependence, and large gaps in military capabilities, positively affect soft power. History of military disputes, occupation and colonization negatively affect soft power. Similarities in culture and regime type, as well as strength of popular culture do not affect soft power. In other words, our research shows that “soft” elements, such as religion and political values, do not have an effect on soft power. What shapes public attitudes toward another country is “hard” elements of power. Based on this research, we argue that soft power is epiphenomenal; lacking independent effect, it merely reflects hard power.

Authors

• Lami Kim, US Army War College

• Lingbo ZHAO, Penn State University