Political Selection After Conflict

• In Event: Elections, Conflict, and Violence

Abstract

The transition of former rebel groups from combatants to politicians has been a frequent phenomenon in the last 30 years, as peace agreements increasingly incorporate provisions for groups to become political parties and hold seats in government. Yet we know little about how these transitions from waging war to engaging in politics occur, the conditions under which they are viable, and the consequences of incorporating former combatants into politics on their reintegration into civilian life, domestic politics, and lasting peace.
In this paper we use a new database on the universe of candidates who stood for local elections in Colombia in three consecutive electoral rounds, before and after the peace agreement, to estimate the impact of the rebel group FARC's presence on the type of politicians who participate in elections. We leverage variation in exposure to the left-wing guerrilla across municipalities and evaluate the role of the organization using the information on the places where the FARC had a presence during the conflict and the places where they settled after the peace agreement.
We document that the presence of the guerrilla affects the number of candidates from left-wing parties that participate in the elections, and we explore the impact it has on female candidates and minority parties.

Authors

• Mateo Vasquez Cortes, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico

• Maria I Curiel, New York University