Divide & Conquer: Rising Defections & Emergence of Two-Party Systems in Africa

• In Event: African Politics & Public Administration Virtual Poster Session
  In Virtual Poster Session: African Politics Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Why are stable, competitive two-party systems emerging in some African states like Ghana and to a lesser extent Nigeria, but, not others like Malawi, Kenya, and Zambia despite electoral turnovers giving power to opposition parties, plurality electoral systems, and banking reform which in theory increases The literature focuses on four explanations for presence or absence of competitive, stable democratic multiparty systems: plurality electoral systems, financial reforms, ethnic fragmentation and most importantly for this paper reducing or eliminating defections from opposition parties. Despite long-standing plurality systems and more than two decades of elections, competitive two-party systems are emerging in Ghana and to a lesser Nigeria but not Malawi, Kenya, or Zambia. Electorally competitive opposition parties emerged prior to banking reform in some states and not at all in many states with banking reform. Stable two-party systems are emerging in some high and low diversity states but not others. Contrary to the literature, a high level of opposition party defections contributes to the emergence of stable, competitive parties if these defections are accompanied by a high level of ruling party defections. Cohesive opposition parties with few defections can lead to opposition parties becoming the new dominant party in an uncompetitive, effective one-party system. Hybrid opposition and dominant parties composed of former members of both through defections generate the stable parties and regularized electoral turnovers. This paper uses social network analysis, multilevel time-series regression of a new, original dataset of party defections, elections, and financial reforms in Sub-Saharan African countries with plurality systems from 1990 to 2020 combined with four country case studies. A brief analysis of the effects of defections on PR systems' electoral competitiveness, stability, and effective number of parties is included. The paper argues that party defections are as critical for the establishment of two-party, stable competitive party systems as plurality, banking reform, and ethnic diversity. In the absence of high party defections, a single electoral turnover can result in the re-establishment of single-party rule.

Author

• Kimberly L. Shella, Southern Illinois University Carbondale