Breaking the Code: Can a New Penal Procedure Affect Public Safety?

• In Event: Advances in Law Enforcement Policy Research

Abstract

We explore the potential effects of a new Code of Penal Procedure (CPP) on crime. On November 1st 2017, Uruguay switched from an inquisitorial system (where a single judge leads investigation and decides the appropriate punishment for a particular crime) to an adversarial system (judges serve as referees to ensure the correct procedure, whereas investigation is led by prosecutors). Despite the fact that criminal law remained unchanged, the new criminal procedure introduces alternatives to oral trials that might result in lighter sentences and have been widely used by prosecutors (i.e., 90% of solved cases). Using a regression-discontinuity (RD) design for the most common offenses reported in Montevideo, this study finds a local and significant increase in the total number of reports filed when the new CPP entered into force. Results show an increase of 21-24 police reports per day, accounting for 23%-26% of the average annual increase. These effects are heterogeneous across crimes. We discuss which conditions are required to use the RD framework in applications where time periods both index the units and function as the score variable. Focus on RD-type parameters requires a time invariance assumption. Moreover, the empirical strategy needs high-frequency data and a treatment that produces an immediate impact.

Authors

• Matis Cattaneo, University of Michigan

• Carlos Daniel Diaz Guimaraens

• Rocio Titiunik, Princeton University