Climatic Influences on Collective Action: Evidence from Drought in Namibia

• In Event: State Politics and Policy & New Directions in Political Economy Virtual Poster Session
  In Virtual Poster Session: New Directions in Political Economy Virtual Poster Session

Abstract

Political outcomes ranging from mass migration to leadership change to violent conflict have been linked to adverse climatic conditions expected to increase under climate change. While large scale cross-country panel datasets can provide substantiation of such relationships, relatively little rigorous evidence is available to identify micro-level behavioral and collective responses that could help to explain these links. In this study we pair an exogenous climatic shock: a severe and spatially-varying drought, with repeated “lab-in-the-field” behavioral games and observed measures of collective action from 123 grazing areas across northern Namibia. First, we test whether play by over 1,200 individuals in public goods and third-party punishment games differs between drought and non-drought conditions. Second, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy to determine whether the size of any behavioral change varies with the local severity of the drought and related ecological stress. Third, in the same villages, we explore how observed measures of collective behavior—including participation in community groups, meetings and financial contributions regarding water resource and rangeland management—vary with the experience of drought. Results (TBD) will provide some of the first evidence from a context of acute vulnerability to climate change of the impacts of severe climatic shocks on people’s propensity to act pro-socially and collectively. These will, in turn, further elucidate potential mechanisms linking climate to political outcomes from migration to conflict.

Authors

• Garrett Michael Albistegui Adler, Stanford University

• Dylan Groves, Columbia University