What Happened? Trump, Latinos, and the South Texas Vote.

• In Event: Experimental Studies of U.S. Voters

Abstract

The 2020 election surprised many observers of electoral behavior when a larger than expected proportion of Latinos voted for the incumbent Donald Trump, surpassing his surprising level of support in 2016. This goes against the expectations of academics and pundits, particularly given the registration efforts focused on minority communities. An unprecedented number of Latinos registered to vote in 2016 and 2018. Nevertheless, a large turnout gap between whites and non-whites continues to be the norm (Fraga 2018). For the most recent elections, turnout figures did not reflect the expected massive Latino wave (see predictions Latino Decisions). Furthermore, exit poll data suggested that Latinos supported Trump in 2016 at levels higher than Romney and a lackluster turnout on election day. We focus on the case of Texas, with over 11 million Latinos, making up 30% of the eligible voter population.

In order to explore the possible impact that Trump had on Latino voters we use three distinct methods. We first use aggregate data to explore turnout across precincts in Texas, focusing on predominantly Hispanic areas. We compare registration, turnout, and the two-party vote share during the most recent presidential and midterm elections. Second, we analyze data from a survey experiment conducted with college students across four Texas campuses before the 2016 elections. The experiment presented participants with a 2x2 between groups manipulating the candidate (Trump or Clinton) and the policy proposal (Clinton’s economic policy proposal and Trump’s immigration proposals). We find limited evidence that Trump motivated Latino voters to the polls. Third, we employ in-depth interviews with community organizers and campaign managers in South Texas to explore how Donald Trump was approached in political communications and the “ground game.”

We conclude by exploring possible mechanisms through which Latinos were unaffected by a divisive figure that is heavily opposed by a majority of Latinos and speculate about possible macropolitical effects for the upcoming elections.

Authors

• Angel Saavedra Cisneros, St. Norbert College

• Natasha Altema McNeely, University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley

• Kassandra Elejarza