Meta-Analysis of Impact of Violence on Post-Conflict Sociopolitical Dynamics

• In Event: Post-Conflict Institutional Structures

Abstract

This paper presents a systematic meta-analysis of the literature on violence and its consequences in post-conflict and forced migration settings. Exposure to war and forced migration is commonly conceptualized as a binary experience -- either an individual is exposed to it or is not. Studies that use this conceptualization commonly find that exposure to violence during conflict can increase social capital and willingness to reconcile with adversaries. In contrast, studies that examine individual-level mental health consequences of exposure to trauma and violence, including the development of PTSD, depression, and anxiety, commonly find that individuals who present adverse responses following traumatic events are less supportive of peace and reconciliation efforts. Previous research has revealed significant individual variation in response to traumatic events, ranging from post-traumatic symptomology (PTSD, emotional dysregulation, depression and anxiety), to no response, to exceeding pre-trauma exposure functioning. Using exposure to violence as the primary explanatory factor leads to conclusions that do not capture the true impact of trauma and violence on individual behavior and attitudes. In this meta-analysis, we examine how different conceptualizations of exposure to violence and forced migration in conflict-affected populations produce consistent or disparate results across the 130 papers included in the meta-analysis. We examine how findings vary depending on case selection, measurements used, identification strategy, and outcomes observed. This paper provides a comprehensive look at the state of this emerging area of study, and offers paths forward in the conceptualization and measurement of violence and trauma in studies seeking to better understand post-conflict dynamics in conflict-affected populations.

Authors

• Biz Herman, UC Berkeley

• Justine Davis, University of Michigan