The PollyVote Forecast for the 2021 German Election

• In Event: Forecasting the 2021 German Federal Election

Abstract

The PollyVote was launched in 2004 with the goals to apply scientific findings from prior research as well as to validate new findings from forecasting research. Since 2004, the PollyVote has provided highly accurate forecasts of U.S. presidential elections (2004-2020) as well as German federal elections (2013 and 2017) by applying the principle of combining forecasts from different methods that rely on different information. This paper will present the PollyVote’s forecast for the 2021 German federal election, which combines forecasts from traditional poll-based approaches, expectations-based methods (e.g., betting markets, citizen forecasts, or expert judgment), as well as model-based approaches.

Author

• Andreas Graefe, Macromedia University of Applied Sciences