From Brexit to Border Poll? Northern Ireland's Constitutional Future

• In Event: The State of the Union(s): Sub-National Challenges to the UK

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which support for a United Ireland has increased since the 2016 Brexit referendum, exploring in detail the attitudes of the ‘swing’ voters on the constitutional issue: those who declare they are neither unionist nor nationalist. Given that this group comprises more people than those in either the unionist or nationalist categories, the reasons for their preference-shaping, in terms of backing for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK or becoming part of a united Ireland, remain surprisingly under-explored. Drawing upon new data from an ongoing ESRC project offering a detailed examination of the views of non-unionist and non-nationalist electors and of the largest party representing this category, Alliance, we examine the extent to which constitutional agnostics have moved towards sympathy for a united Ireland in recent years, analyse whether this might be sufficient to trigger a border poll under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement and assess the reasons for attitudinal changes on the constitutional question.

Authors

• Jonathan Tonge, University of Liverpool

• Thomas Hennessey, Canterbury Christ Church University

• Maire Braniff, Ulster University

• Jim McAuley, University of Huddersfield

• Sophie Whiting, University of Bath