Does Manipulating Elections Hurt Putin's Popularity?

• In Event: Poster Session: Democracy & Autocracy

Abstract

Does electoral manipulation shape support for authoritarian leaders? To examine this question, I fielded a large survey experiment in Russia following the 2020 nationwide vote on constitutional amendments that reset President Putin's term clock, allowing him to serve two additional terms. The experiment randomly assigned respondents to view information revealing electoral manipulation that marred the vote and probed respondents' support for another Putin term. The analysis reveals three key findings. First, there are substantial discrepancies in expectation for electoral integrity between regime supporters and opponents, suggesting that the latter are well-aware of the regime's interference in elections. Second, only regime supporters update their perceptions of election quality when exposed to manipulation. Third, electoral manipulation does not shape levels of public support for Putin, neither among regime supporters nor opponents. These findings demonstrate that authoritarian leaders can maintain popular support while rigging elections, posing serious questions about the potential of electoral manipulation to erode regime stability.

Author

• Laurits Aarslew, Aarhus University