Going It Alone? An Empirical Study of Coalition Formation in Elections

• In Event: Parties, Coalitions, and Representation

Abstract

Despite its prevalence worldwide, relatively little is know about how electoral coalition formation affects other aspects of electoral competition and election outcomes. I develop and estimate a model of electoral competition in which: (i) parties can form coalitions to coordinate their candidate nominations, and (ii) parties invest in campaign activities in support of their candidates. The model is estimated using data from the 2012 Mexican Chamber of Deputies election, which offers district-level variation in coalition formation. A comparison of election outcomes under counterfactual coalition scenarios uncovers equilibrium savings in campaign expenditures from coalition formation as well as significant electoral gains benefiting weaker partners.

Author

• Sergio Montero, University of Rochester