Shifting Support to Pro-climate Candidates after an Extreme Weather Event

• In Event: How Public Opinion Responds to Extreme Events

Abstract

Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods are becoming more frequent, enduring, and intense due to human-caused global warming. While previous research has shown how first-hand experiences of such events influence citizens’ climate-related attitudes and perceptions, studies of their impact on actual behavior reach mixed conclusions. This paper contributes by investigating the effects of an unusually destructive storm surge caused by the 2013 winter storm “Bodil” on voting behavior in Danish parliamentary elections. Employing a difference-in-differences design at the level of 1400 polling stations, the analysis shows how the vote share of the incumbent socialist bloc, who has held clear issue ownership on climate change, increased by up to two percentage points in floodstricken areas. Moreover, flooding exposure also led to a higher vote share for electoral candidates running on pro-climate platforms both within and across parties. Together, these results suggest that the flood caused affected citizens to shift support towards parties and candidates with a pro-climate agenda rather than, for example, punishing them for being governmental incumbents. The study thus provides a vivid example of how personal weather experiences can translate into actual political behavior.

Author

• Søren Damsbo-Svendsen, University of Copenhagen