Refugees, Integration Policies, and Violence

• In Event: Forced Displacement, Wartime Refugees, and Integration

Abstract

How does refugee hosting impact violence, and what role do refugee policies play in mitigating or exacerbating this violence? Nearly 1% of the world’s population is forcibly displaced. While the effect of conflict on displacement is well-known, far less research examines the influence of forcibly displaced people on conflict in host communities. Local integration is one of the few durable solutions for forcibly displaced people, and bears critical implications for conflict resolution, post-conflict reconciliation, and development. Previous cross-national research argues that refugee movements result in the diffusion of civil conflict, but more recent subnational work has shown that the presence of refugee camps may actually decrease
civil violence due to development spending. Importantly, these studies do not consider the role that integration policies and refugee rights play in mediating the relationship between refugee hosting and conflict. While hosting offers opportunities for economic growth and
community development, it can also create conditions for predation by political elites and militant groups. Impoverished refugees may be ripe for insurgent recruitment and may exacerbate intracommunal tensions over property rights and employment. To date, there is little
empirical evidence to guide policies intended to integrate refugees or evaluate the unintended downstream consequences of mass-scale displacement and refugee integration.

We estimate the causal effect of refugees on conflict in hosting regions using a difference-in-differences design and granular data on the locations of refugee settlements. Broadening existing analyses, we draw on microdata on insurgent and social conflict to study how refugee hosting impacts political violence ranging from anti-government extremism to protests, riots, and tribal clashes. Then, using a triple difference design and new data on de jure refugee
rights in host countries, we assess whether liberal, integrative policies mitigate or exacerbate the effect of refugee hosting on political and social conflict.

We document three main results. First, refugee hosting is associated with more social but not insurgent conflict. Second, for all types of conflicts, host policy liberality moderates the relationship, with liberal policies blunting violence. Third, there is policy heterogeneity.
Access and employment rights have the biggest impact reducing insurgent violence in hosting regions. However, employment rights have a small but distinguishable positive effect on demonstrations, consistent with host backlash over labor market competition. Together, these results clarify when and how refugee presence influences conflict, and point to the key role of integrative policies in offsetting potential risks associated with refugee hosting.

Authors

• Lamis Abdelaaty, Syracuse University

• Christopher William Blair, Princeton University

• Burcu Savun, University of Pittsburgh