Do Off-Cycle Elections Advantage Organized Groups?

• In Event: Local Government Institutions and Political Representation

Abstract

Election timing has significant effects on American democracy. For example, research shows that on-cycle elections increase turnout and reduce bias in the composition of the electorate (Kogan et al. 2018). Moreover, the policy preferences of organized groups also appear to be better represented by governments chosen in off-cycle elections (Anzia 2011, 2013). However, there is little direct evidence concerning how interest groups benefit from off-cycle elections. One possibility is that organized groups are more successful at getting their favored candidates elected in off-cycle races because their mobilization efforts are more impactful in lower-turnout elections. We examine this possibility by studying teacher-union endorsements in California school board elections. Focusing on a statewide election consolidation law that compelled school districts with off-cycle elections to move on-cycle, we find that union electioneering success diminished after consolidation. These findings indicate that interest groups benefit from off-cycle contests, in part, because they are able to wield greater electoral influence at the ballot box.

Author

• Michael T. Hartney, Boston College