Why Do Primary Electorates Nominate Extreme Candidates?

• In Event: Voting in Primaries

Abstract

Congressional primary electorates tend to nominate ideologically extreme candidates and candidates with previous political experience. Yet extensive evidence suggests that voters have little information about candidates in primary elections. In this paper, I propose a model where party activists influence the outcome of primary elections by providing resources used to generate name recognition for favored candidates. Using data on candidates, donors, campaign, and voters, I show how party actors influence Congressional primary outcomes. Party activist support strongly predicts primary election outcomes regardless of candidate experience or ideology, precedes advertising that generates positive name recognition, and uniquely aids candidates with names that are distinct and recognizable. Together, this evidence suggests that the invisible primary is central to the dynamics of congressional primary elections in the United States.

Author

• Mackenzie Lockhart, UC San Diego