Sudden Departures, New Arrivals, and Voting in Rural and Post-industrial Areas

• In Event: The Urban-Rural Divide in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

The urban-rural divide in the U.S. is characterized by both political and economic dimensions. Politically, it is increasingly clear that a highly partisan and “Blue Cities, Red Countryside” divide is continuing to deepen. Simultaneously, the development of the post-industrial service- and knowledge economy has share of American population that lives in rural areas continues to decline, and many former industrial areas are continuing to experience population loss as well. Using Census data on population flows, CCES surveys, and an original survey from metropolitan Chicago, this paper reports two sets of descriptive findings on electoral behavior and attitude shifts (and non-shifts) in the places most affected by major population migrations in the contemporary U.S. First, we find that while remnant residents in both urban and rural places express low levels of political efficacy, they diverge on the potential role of civic action and government policy as strategies to ameliorate the ill effects of structural change and poverty. This attitudinal difference is echoed in the relationship between population change and partisan choice in recent electoral cycles. Second, we find that while the new arrivals and long-term residents of gentrifying areas of “urban renaissance” show strong partisan and ideological alignment, they participate in very different civic organizations, make different evaluations of local changes in their neighborhoods. These divergences suggest that the latent fissures within this national coalition are indeed real, and are more readily visible in conflicts over local policy and valued resources.

Authors

• Thomas K. Ogorzalek, Co-Lab Research

• Matthew D. Nelsen, University of Miami