Recent Trends in Ideological Polarization in Latin America

• In Event: The New Polarization in Latin America and Its Implications for Democracy

Abstract

Polarization has become an increasingly important topic for students of politics. The ways polarization processes are shaping citizens’ political behavior makes polarization one of the defining forces of present-day political dynamics. Most research on the different forms of polarization has been performed on institutionalized party systems such as the U.S. and Western European countries. Research on polarization in Latin American societies is scarce, even if the region presents empirical evidence of remarkably interesting polarization processes taking place. In this paper, we first propose a novel measure of ideological polarization at the mass level using citizens’ self-positioning on the left-right scale. Then, we apply the indicator to data on nineteen countries coming from the Latin American Public Opinion Project’s (LAPOP) “AmericasBarometer” surveys. Levels and trends in ideological polarization are tracked over time across the region. Then, we propose a typology of ideological polarization trends. Last, we contrast the identified descriptive trends with recent electoral results for a subset of countries, exploring the ways in which mass ideological polarization and electoral outcomes may be associated, especially in recent years. We conclude with a discussion of potential implications of rising mass polarization for outcomes other than elections.

Author

• Paolo Moncagatta, Universidad San Francisco de Quito