Introducing the ARMOR Dataset

• In Event: Leader-Elite Power Dynamics in Dictatorships

Abstract

When does a dictator’s “armor” – his security forces – defend him from a mass uprising? We create a new dataset, Armed Responses to Mobilization Or Revolution (ARMOR), that tracks how the military and police forces respond during every nonviolent regime change campaign included in NAVCO. The dataset offers 30 new variables disaggregating various types of defection across the military and police and across junior and senior ranks. Initial patterns reveal that the majority of cases exhibit both defection and repression; that defections are about twice as likely within the military than the police; and that conscription, counterbalancing, and protester fraternization all correlate with military defections. The data also reveal that dictators often do not call on their militaries to repress, highlighting potentially strategic behavior to explore.

Author

• Sharan Grewal, College of William & Mary