If I Can't Patrol, You're Not Safe: Peacekeeper Mobility and Insurgent Violence

• In Event: The Politics of Foreign Support in Civil Wars

Abstract

Scholars overwhelmingly agree that peacekeeping is critical to the promotion of peace. Yet we still know little about the channels through which peacekeepers achieve their goals. We propose a new theory for why proactive peacekeeping patrols -- the modal peacekeeping activity, but the subject of little empirical study -- can prove crucial to containing insurgent violence, which we test by leveraging the sudden imposition of mobility restrictions due to COVID-19. We draw on four original datasets on peacekeeper patrols and violence in Somalia, including a survey we conducted in early 2021, and data on five additional African peacekeeping missions. We find that insurgent violence increases disproportionately in regions where peacekeeping countries implemented mobility restrictions and reduced proactive patrolling. Overall, restrictions are associated with substantial increases in violence, often as much as 20 percent, and costs are concentrated on the civilians peacekeepers are mandated to protect. Our study indicates that peacekeeper patrols should be prioritized, particularly in times of crises.

Authors

• Nicholas Semi Haas, Aarhus University

• Prabin Khadka, University of Essex