#Activism from Exile: How Exiles Influence Protests Back Home

• In Event: 'Invisible' Protest-Repression? Exploring Hard-to-Measure Interactions/Outcomes

Abstract

How do activists in exile participate in contentious politics back home in the digital age? Exiles may be particularly influential over the internet due to their ability to introduce and amplify oppositional information that is critical of the regime, contributing to the information cascades that are so important to overcoming collective action problems and mobilizing protests in authoritarian contexts. In this paper, we develop a framework in which we differentiate between types of social media users: influencers, amplifiers, and consumers. We draw on evidence from Egypt, where in September 2019 exiles introduced and amplified oppositional information online, ultimately resulting in sizeable anti-regime protests. Analyses of large-scale data from Facebook, Google, Twitter, and YouTube, as well as political protest data, systematically traces the process through which exiles initially introduced oppositional information, amplified and spread that information, and contributed to the widespread consumption of that information within Egypt. Additional analyses demonstrate sub-national correlations between the spread of information and protest at a fine-grained level. Our results contribute to a collective understanding of the relationship between online and offline dissent, and how transnational actors use the internet to remain influential in domestic contentious politics.

Authors

• Alexandra Arons Siegel, University of Coloardo Boulder

• Elizabeth R. Nugent, Princeton University