Business Elite and Support for Autocrats

• In Event: Poster Session: Democracy & Autocracy

Abstract

Why does the business elite defect from an autocratic regime? On the one hand, the business elite rarely challenges autocrats. It’s a risky enterprise to challenge an authoritarian incumbent, as the threat of expropriation, imprisonment, or any other type of repression is real and imminent. The V-Dem data suggest that the business elite is in opposition in only 1/5th of electoral autocracies. In only 1/10th of these cases, the business elite actively challenges the incumbent. However, sometimes even against staggering odds, the business elite does defect from autocratic regimes, and in some cases, spearheads the social mobilization against them. To explain this puzzle, first, I employ a quantitative analysis of business support for autocrats using the V-Dem data. Secondly, I present the results from a survey experiment conducted in Turkey regarding public support for repression against the business elite. The overall findings indicate that the business elite withdraws its support from an autocratic regime under specific conditions. Their defection depends on the composition of social groups mobilizing against the incumbent, the longevity of the financial crisis, and the severity of anti-business public opinion that is supportive of punitive acts against co-opted/crony businesses.

Author

• Semuhi Sinanoglu, University of Toronto