Punctuated Equilibrium Theory Friction Models and Policy Failure

• In Event: Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Comparative Political Institutions

Abstract

This paper develops a theory of policy failure using Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET). PET’s friction model finds that policy change occurs in fits and starts with long periods of stasis followed by rapid episodes of change. Political institutions can increase or decrease the amount of friction in a system, resulting in variation in the distribution of change in a system. We extend this theory to include the impact of friction of types of policy failure. The frequency of and types of policy failure that a system will experience will be a function of the types of friction created by its political institutions. We argue that the friction model predicts that political institutions will create five types of policy failure: policy bubbles, chronic underinvestment, negligence, overreactions, and mistakes. We evaluate this theory using a mixed method approach. We present a quantitative analysis of financial crises in 60 countries over 50 years as well as a case study of monetary policy in Turkey under the Erdogan regime.

Authors

• E.J. Fagan, University of Illinois at Chicago

• Bryan D. Jones, University of Texas, Austin