The Economics of the Education Electoral Gap, Generations and Implications

• In Event: Unequal Turnout in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

The economic and cultural impacts of globalisation have challenged political systems and shifted the axes of political competition. We argue that two key steps have been overlooked in understanding these effects. First, the impacts of such slow, gradual changes need to be understood inter-generationally – because they have different impacts depending on when they happen in the life-cycle. Older generations have been largely insulated from their economic impacts. The degree to which this is true will vary cross-nationally, but the implications are substantial. Second, graduates are – we propose - better able to compete in today’s job markets, whereas non-graduates are particularly left behind by the effects of globalisation, wealth inequality and the expansion of higher education. We provide evidence from Great Britain consistent with these arguments. Several implications follow. We show that the most culturally conservative individuals are not the most economically insecure, and the conflation of cultural and economic explanations therefore requires revision. Left parties cannot count on their more educated voters. These voters will accumulate greater economic security, and be cross-pressured towards right parties. The politics of education may increasingly become an economic divide, and this divide may deepen and widen over time. Plenty of caveats follow, in particular the need for more over-time and cross-national evidence, but our early conclusions could have wide implications for the future and help us better understand recent electoral events.

Authors

• Jane Green, Nuffield College

• Roosmarijn Adrienne Geus, Nuffield College, Oxford University