Learning to Forgive: the Politics of Student Debt Relief Policy

• In Event: Policy Designs and Target Populations

Abstract

With more than $1.6 trillion owed by approximately 44 million Americans, a growing chorus of policymakers and advocates warn that student loan debt—like subprime mortgages of the early 2000s—may spark the next financial crisis. While student loans have enabled generations of Americans to get an education, the resulting debt—when exacerbated by shifts away from full time employment and stagnating wages—has been tied to delays in marriage, childbearing, and homeownership among younger cohorts of borrowers. Moreover, ballooning debt has had especially pernicious consequences for Black Americans, expanding the racial wealth gap.

The stark consequences of mounting student loan debt have accelerated calls for student debt relief, especially in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recession. But policymakers have yet to successfully implement student debt forgiveness on any broad scale—either through congressional or executive action. The most substantive step taken was the implementation and subsequent extension of a pause on federal student loan interest and payments. Proponents for debt forgiveness have ramped up pressure on the Biden administration to use executive power to cancel student debt, noting that the popularity of doing so might provide the political boost to save Democrats’ floundering electoral prospects at the ballot box in 2022 and beyond. While polls show relatively high levels of support for student debt forgiveness, however, we know very little about how the details of different policy provisions—for example, about what type or amount of debt is forgiven and for which borrowers—might condition public support, particularly in a partisan political environment.

This paper employs two original conjoint experiments to explore two interrelated questions about support for student debt relief: How do borrower characteristics condition support for student loan debt forgiveness proposals, and to what degree are these factors distinct from those that drive support for (or opposition to) other forms of government social provision? We are particularly interested in the role that “deservingness” plays in people’s opinions about student debt forgiveness, focusing on how borrower characteristics like race, familial wealth, occupation, and type of educational debt affect attitudes. We further explore how different debt forgiveness plans influence voter preferences for the upcoming election. Ultimately, our results shed light on the political dynamics for a highly salient post-Covid policy issue, while extending scholarly understandings of deservingness for a critical, and understudied, aspect of the American welfare state.

Authors

• Mallory E. SoRelle, Duke University

• Serena Laws, Trinity College, Hartford CT