The Durability of Rebel Regimes

• In Event: Protesters, Soldiers and the State: Re-Examining Military Response to Resistance

Abstract

Recent scholarship suggests that regimes that emerge after violent armed struggle are more durable than other autocracies (Levitsky and Way 2012; Slater and Smith 2016; Geddes et al. 2018; Lachapelle et al. 2020; Meng and Paine 2021). However, less is known about variation between regimes that emerge after violent conflict. In this paper, we leverage new data on rebel regimes to examine which factors account for their varying survival. We demonstrate that rebel regimes differ considerably on the control of their own military forces. Some rebellions lead to tightly controlled postwar armies while others birth highly autonomous military forces. This variation has profound consequences for regime survival. Autonomous rebel armies are less likely to defend postwar regimes when facing mass protest and more likely to launch coups and seize power themselves.

Authors

• Adam E. Casey, University of Michigan

• Dan Slater, University of Michigan

• Jean Lachapelle, University of Montreal