Civil War Impact on Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Nigeria

• In Event: Communal Conflict, Civil War, and Implications for Peacebuilding

Abstract

In settings as diverse as Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Nigeria, violent conflicts between communal groups occur alongside civil war between the national government and insurgents. While mostly analyzed separately, empirical evidence suggests that these conflicts can influence each other, posing a serious challenge to peacebuilders. Hence, the article investigates how patterns of violence in communal conflicts change in the shadow of civil war. To answer this question, interview data and network drawings from field research in northern Nigeria are combined with quantitative network analysis. I argue that violence decreases in areas directly impacted by the civil war but that the patterns of violence in communal conflicts in neighboring regions assimilate to those of civil war. On the one hand, everyday life of the rural communities is radically disrupted by high intensity violence, lowering the prevalence of disputes. In addition, governance established by insurgent groups can prevent the escalation of non-violent disputes. On the other hand, the government concentrates its capacity in the areas immediately affected by civil war, leaving tensions between communal groups in other regions unattended. Confronted with the resulting security dilemma, communal groups establish links with insurgents through the war economy network to protect themselves and adapt a mode of warfare more similar to such groups. Ultimately, the paper underlines the importance of a comprehensive perspective for effective peace initiatives in the Sahel zone.

Author

• Claudia Wiehler, ETH Zurich