Does Threat Mobilize? Examining the Latino Voter Turnout

• In Event: Explaining Minority Voter Turnout

Abstract

The question of whether and how threat mobilizes immigrants’ political participation has been repeatedly examined within the social sciences literature. One line of research finds that threats like deportation, incarceration or detention can negatively affect immigrant groups’ political participation. On the other hand, past work finds that stricter immigration enforcement attributes to increases in voter turnout. In this study, I strive to gap the disconnect between the mixed findings by providing a causal and theoretical explanation for how and when threat should mobilize marginalized groups’ voter turnout. I test this claim by looking at the effect of how the appointment of local Republican sheriffs in the United States effect Latino voter turnout using a regression discontinuity design that focuses on races where they barely won or lost. Close elections of sheriffs are associated with an increase in turnout among Latino voters for the next election. To retaliate and avoid hostile outcomes, eligible voters become more mobilized to turn out to vote at the polls. The results suggest threat can lead to strategic voting behaviors taken by marginalized groups.

Author

• Jae Eun Kim, University of Rochester