A Racial Advantage? Evaluating Minority Candidate Performance with a RD Approach

• In Event: Race, Gender, and Candidate Evaluation

Abstract

Do voters systematically obstruct minority representation? Despite a great deal of attention, scholars still disagree about the relative electoral prospects of racial and ethnic minority candidates. We use a regression discontinuity design with state legislative election data from 2018 and 2020 to isolate the effect a nominee’s race or ethnicity on the party’s general election performance. This design gives us empirical leverage on the specific circumstance of party primary voters advancing a white candidate or candidate of color to the general election, all else equal. Using this approach with real-world data also heightens external validity relative to existing racial penalty studies, which are largely supported by surveys and experiments. We find no evidence that candidates of color are disadvantaged in state legislative general elections, relative to white nominees from the same party. In fact, our results indicate that once advancing past a competitive primary, minority candidates may confer a significant advantage to the nominating party at the general election stage. These findings challenge leading explanations for the underrepresentation of racial/ethnic minority groups, with implications for redistricting and voting rights litigation across the United States.

Authors

• Bernard L. Fraga, Emory University

• Eric Gonzalez Juenke, Michigan State University

• Paru Shah, Rutgers University, New Brunswick