The Policy Hungry: How Affordable Housing Generates Policy Feedback

• In Event: Affordable Housing, Development, and Inclusion in Cities

Abstract

Does a policy’s physical infrastructure affect its support in the abstract? We test policy feedback effects using two nearly identical statewide ballot propositions; each allocating over $2 billion for affordable housing in California. As our treatment, we geocode over 450 affordable housing developments placed in service between these two bonds (2003-2006), allowing us to estimate the causal effect of new, nearby affordable housing on changes in block-level support for funding affordable housing statewide. We find that the construction of nearby affordable housing causes majority-homeowner blocks to increase their support for the statewide housing bond, while causing majority-renter blocks to decrease their support. While we attribute to the positive effects among homeowners to the housing's replacement of blight and improved property values (e.g., Diamond and McQuade 2019), the negative effect among renters is driven entirely by gentrifying neighborhoods. By not receiving the affordable housing, these "policy hungry" renters may attribute the new development as further increasing the high rents around them. In turn, policy implementation can lead to negative feedback even among the policy's intended beneficiaries. These effects are not driven by increased turnout, roll-off, or residential churn. Our results hold insight for other policies which have support in the abstract, but face intense local political opposition in implementation – e.g., the Green New Deal and clean energy infrastructure.

Authors

• Michael Hankinson, George Washington University

• Asya Magazinnik, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

• Melissa Sands, London School of Economics