The Effects of Populist Rhetoric on Affective Polarization

• In Event: Poster Session: Comparative Politics of Developing Countries 2

Abstract

In the last two decades, populism and populist rhetoric have become pervasive features in Latin American politics and beyond (Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser, 2018). The literature on populism has linked populist appeals to the polarization of the electorate (Taggart, 2019). On the one hand, supply-side studies assume polarization as an innate quality of the common friend vs foe populist rhetoric (Hawkins, 2010), while demand-side research focuses on populist-voters' sociological profile, political attitudes, beliefs and issue positions (Akkerman, Zaslove & Spruyt, 2017; Hawkins, Rovira Kaltwasser & Andreadis, 2020). However, research on the effect that populism and populist rhetoric have on polarized perceptions of citizens provides little empirical evidence to support this causal claim. Furthermore, the mechanisms through which this happens are not entirely clear.

In our research we address this gap by studying the effect of populist rhetoric on perceived affective polarization—the perceived distance between the in-group and the out-group of a voter. We field a nationally representative survey in Ecuador that embeds a vignette experiment to be answered by 3,600 Ecuadorian respondents. In our survey experiment, we show a news story of a fictional mayor justifying their political behavior. We randomly assign a party to the mayor, as well as the type of rhetoric used (i.e., populist or non-populist). We then measure whether exposure to the populist vignette increases affective polarization among respondents. This setup allows us to determine some of the mechanisms at play. For example, we can determine whether populist rhetoric pulls respondents towards like-minded politicians (and/or their followers), pushes respondents away from opposing politicians (and/or their followers), or both. Respondents might also have preconceived attitudes about populism and about the populist characteristics of a co-partisan politician. Using time-to-answer as a proxy for cognitive dissonance and congruence, we evaluate how cognitive dissonances from mismatches in these attitudes moderate changes in affective polarization. Research has found heterogeneous reactions to populist candidates conditional on populist attitudes [cite], and political context [cite]. We test how the effect of populist rhetoric on affective polarization is mediated by political polarization and partisanship strength.

We provide evidence of a supply-side effect of populism on affective polarization, and a partial explanation to the mechanisms at play. This work adds to the growing body of literature that provides empirical evidence to some of the fundamental suppositions about populism (i.e., manichean rhetoric has an effect on voter's behavior). When political figures engage in populist rhetoric, voters react by distancing from the out-group, a condition that can hamper democratic deliberation [cite] and increase conflict [cite].

References:

Akkerman, A., Zaslove, A., & Spruyt, B. (2017). ‘We the People’ or ‘We the Peoples’? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right and Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands. Swiss Political Science Review, 23(4), 377–403. https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12275


Hawkins, K. A., Rovira Kaltwasser, C., & Andreadis, I. (2020). The Activation of Populist Attitudes. In Government and Opposition (Vol. 55, Issue 2, pp. 283–307). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.23

Mudde, C., & Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2018). Studying Populism in Comparative Perspective: Reflections on the Contemporary and Future Research Agenda. Comparative Political Studies, 51(13), 1667–1693. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018789490

Taggart, P. (2019). Populism and “unpolitics.” In G. Fitzi, J. Mackert, & B. Turner (Eds.), Populism and the crisis of democracy. (pp. 79–87). Routledge.

Authors

• Sebastian Vallejo Vera, Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey

• Angelica Abad Cisneros, Universidad de Cuenca

• Diana Davila Gordillo, Lake Forest College