How Policy Stakes & Probabilistic Forecasts Can Influence Voting Behavior

• In Event: Information and Voting

Abstract

This study looks at the effect of probabilistic forecasts and policy stakes on vote intention in an experimental setting. This study examines stakes and forecasts through exposing subjects to mock newspaper articles in two experiments: a fictitious mayor election and the 2018 U.S. Senate race in Arizona. The study found that varying policy stakes of an election had a significant impact on intention to vote, while varying the probabilistic forecasts did not have a significant effect on intention to vote. My results lead me to conclude that the media has the potential to influence political participation through the way they cover elections.

Author

• Mark McKibbin