Diversity in Judicial Nominations

• In Event: Diversity in the Federal Courts

Abstract

Having federal courts that reflect the population both racially and by gender is a critical factor influencing their legitimacy. Despite efforts to diversify the federal bench since at least the Carter administration, the federal judiciary remains substantially unrepresentative. But these previous efforts may drive further diversification. In particular, when judicial vacancies occur, the prior judge’s race and gender may serve as a kind of psychological anchor as presidents pick a replacement. This means that prior diverse confirmations can be impactful beyond the service of the original nominee by influencing their successors.

To examine trends in the nomination of diverse federal judges, we build and deploy a data set of all lower court nominations from the start of the Reagan administration through the first year of the Biden administration. Each case includes demographic and other basic information on the nominee as well as information on the prior judge’s characteristics, details of the vacancy, the demographic and ideological character of the relevant Senate delegation, as well as a variety of political context measures. We also gather information on how, how long, and how successfully each nomination proceeded through the Senate.

Using nearly 40 years of lower federal court nominations we first explore broad trends in the number and patterns of diversity in nominations. We then examine both the role that a previous judge’s attributes play in the nomination of a replacement as well as a variety of other considerations such as the composition of the Senate delegation, presidential considerations, and state characteristics. Overall, we find that diversity does influence future nominations in ways that suggest prior judges anchor future president’s decisions. Furthermore, we provide the most up-to-date analysis of trends in nominating female and minority candidates to the lower courts.

Authors

• Jonathan King, Michigan State University

• Ian Ostrander, Michigan State University

• Jessica Schoenherr, University of South Carolina