Pandemic Politicians? Elite Response to COVID-19 and the Swedish “Experiment”

• In Event: Polarization, Pandemic, and Trust in Political Information (Virtual Session)

Abstract

In this paper, we report how Swedish politicians and citizens changed their views about the Swedish government’s and authorities’ handling of the Covid-pandemic during the pandemic. The Swedish strategy to curb the coronavirus pandemic has been less strict compared to other industrial democracies and the Swedish “experiment” generated scholarly interest. Using a unique four-wave panel data with approximately 1000 Swedish local, regional and national politicians- the so called Panel of Politicians conducted at the University of Gothenburg - we study how support for the strategy changed in relation to death tolls and the public opinion. By using a panel design, we can take fluctuations in covid-19 spread into account to investigate how Swedish politicians’ concern for the pandemic as well as their support for the government and the health care authorities changed over time. Answers are compared to a parallel survey of citizens, the Swedish Citizen Panel (N=5000).

Our results show that citizen and politicians supported the government in the beginning of the pandemic, indicating a rally-type of effect in both groups. Increased support for national institutions in times of a national crisis is a familiar phenomenon (Dinesen & Jæger 2013). There are plenty of explanations why these rally-around-the-flag effects occur (see Doty et al. 1991; ). One explanation is that political elites are crucial cue-givers for their followers during a crisis (Baker & Oneal, 2001). This does not, however, seem to be the case in the Swedish society. Later in the pandemic, the rally effect was stronger among citizens than politicians. As the pandemic rolled out, politicians instead became more divided in their attitudes towards the government depending on their attachment to the opposition or to the government. The country therefore saw an elite polarization before there were indications of any citizen polarization. Notably, the polarized effect among politicians regarding the Swedish government did not travel to the government authorities. Swedish politicians kept their trust in the authorities, and they supported the unique and comparatively “laid-back” strategy of the Swedish authorities even though the death rates among elderly people was comparatively high and got international attention.

Our paper provides new evidence on a case that attracted societal and scholarly attention during the pandemic, and it illustrates how citizen and elite trust in government fluctuated over the course of the crises. Political elites got more polarized long before the citizens did, indicating an elite driven, rather than public driven process of conflict. They did not, however shift in their views of the health authorities.

References
Baker, W. D. & Oneal, J. R. (2001). Patriotism or opinion leadership?: The nature and origins of the “rally 'round the flag” Effect. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(5): 661– 687.
Dinesen, P. T. & Jæger, M. M. (2013). The effect of terror on institutional trust: New evidence from the 3/11 Madrid Terrorist attack. Political Psychology 34(6): 917– 926.
Doty, R. M., Peterson, B. E. & Winter, D. G. (1991). Threat and authoritarianism in the United States, 1978–1987. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 61(4): 629– 640.

Author

• Patrik Ohberg, The Department of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg