The Latino Vote for Trump and Biden: Implications for Demography and Destiny

• In Event: Latest Trends in Latina, Latino, and Latinx Politics

Abstract

This paper will examine Latino support for Trump and Biden in 2020, specifically studying the role of key Latino subgroups. While many observers and activists expected the Latino vote to strongly support Biden and power a Blue Wave, various indicators suggest that Latinos more strongly supported Trump in 2020 than in 2016. We also see evidence that such gains for Trump were more than localized effects in Miami and South Texas.  Understanding the Latino vote in this election, and how it compared to the 2016 campaign, is crucial to understanding the nature of Latino political diversity and to assessing whether “demography is destiny.” The paper therefore expands on our previous research by examining a collection of leading public opinion surveys and comparing them over time. Our data will include the 2020 and 2016 American National Election Studies; the 2016 Pew National Survey of Latinos and Pew’s 2020 American Trends Panel; the 2020 and 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, and the 2020 and 2016 Collaborative Post-Election Multiracial Surveys. Our initial findings suggest that an examination of class, gender, and the intersection of the two provides an explanation for why Trump improved his vote share among Latino voters. The paper thereby shows the effects of a growing “diploma divide” and gender gap on Latino conservatism and partisanship. In addition, religion continues to play an important independent electoral role for Latinos.

Authors

• David L. Leal, University of Texas at Austin

• Alvaro Jose Corral, The University of Texas - Rio Grande Valley