Differential Effects of Trauma on Sociopolitical Stability in Nepal

• In Event: How the Past Shapes Our Future: Memories and Intergenerational Socialization

Abstract

How do exposure to potentially traumatic events and individual psychological responses to trauma differentially affect social stability? Does the kind of traumatic exposure (e.g. natural disasters, civil conflict, violent crime) have a differential impact on the likelihood of developing subsequent trauma-related distress? Does trauma-related distress lead to worsened social stability, including worsened intergroup relations, more reactive or violent political participation, and diminished prosociality? Can shared exposure to traumatic experiences, in the absence of subsequent trauma-related distress, translate to increased political participation and prosociality? This study uses the Human Trafficking Vulnerability (HTV) Survey Dataset, a three-round panel dataset collected in Nepal from 2014 to 2019 that surveyed a nationally representative sample of 5000 Nepalis, to address these inquiries. The HTV Survey Dataset provides high-quality information about individual and community dynamics in a post-conflict society; the Nepalese Civil War lasted from 1996 to 2006, and led to an estimated 20,000 people losing their lives and 150,000 people becoming internally displaced. Additionally in the middle of the second round of data collection in April 2015, Nepal was struck with a calamitous earthquake that killed 9,000 people and injured over 22,000. This natural disaster and the data collection before and after allows for the examination of how a range of outcomes were affected by trauma exposure and responses, while controlling for pre-exposure values. We theorize that, on average, individuals with greater trauma-related distress in the aftermath of trauma exposure will have worsened social stability outcomes, including more negative intergroup attitudes and dynamics, more reactive engagement with politics and political groups, and reduced prosocial behaviors. We additionally theorize that individuals who have experienced shared trauma and remained in their communities, but who do not exhibit trauma-related distress will exhibit improved community cohesion, including stronger ingroup trust, less reactive political engagement, and increased prosocial behaviors. As the majority of political science studies on post-conflict and trauma-affected communities have largely omitted psychological indicators, this research helps fill an important lacuna in our knowledge. Incorporating findings from psychology into questions asked by political scientists yields a novel approach that can offer important insights, including how mental health and wellbeing impact community dynamics in the aftermath of trauma.

Authors

• Biz Herman, University of Pennsylvania

• Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, UC Berkeley

• Margaret Boittin, Stanford University