Extreme Weather, Extreme Politics? Climate Change and Political Attitudes

• In Event: How Public Opinion Responds to Extreme Events

Abstract

Voters have been shown to electorally punish political leaders who do not provide aid in the wake of natural disasters caused by extreme weather. But the global climate crisis is increasing the number of affected citizens and spreading government resources thin, begging the question of what happens when government responsiveness is absent or ineffective in times of prolonged environmental crisis? There is also rising interest - and as of yet little research - to understand how extreme weather affects citizens’ views beyond votes for political incumbents. How do natural disasters and government responsiveness shape citizens’ evaluations and trust in their political systems? A cornerstone of democracy is to address citizens’ needs, especially during a crisis. Otherwise, citizens’ unmet grievances and subsequent dissatisfaction could lead to social pathologies which threaten the legitimacy of a democratic regime, such as populist sentiments or pro-authoritarian movements. By focusing on Latin America and leveraging a quasi-experimental analysis with exogenous drought and flooding events, government aid disbursements, and public opinion data from the America’s Barometer between 2004-2020, I argue that proponents of democracy need not be so alarmed. I argue that extreme weather does not automatically beget more extreme political views. Instead, only where governments fail to provide effective aid do pathologies of democracy become noteworthy in measures of public opinion following extreme droughts or flooding. Citizens do not seem to become more populist, polarized, or pro-authoritarian in response to such weather events. Rather, natural disasters may provide opportunities for governments to bolster favorable views of democracy and limit populist sentiments through the provision of aid. However, I also show that over several years of extreme weather, the share of people who identify as ideologically conservative may increase, even if their governments provide aid. Though ideological shifts are not an immediate threat to democracy, conservative extremism has been linked to support for anti-democratic initiatives. Taken together, these findings and the ensuing argument suggest democracies can preserve their legitimacy when confronting the climate crisis, though perhaps only in the short term. Importantly, there may be long-term effects of a changing climate on political identities which over time may profoundly affect political attitudes.

Author

• Anthony Calacino, University of Texas at Austin