AI and Informational Autocracies: Public Framing and Elite Competition in Russia

• In Event: Digital Authoritarianism in the Communist and Post-Communist World

Abstract

This paper probes the extent to which states’ response to international competition over AI is influenced by the type of domestic political regime (i.e., democratic, autocratic, or hybrid), focusing on a case study of Russia as an “informational autocracy.” While there is a growing body of literature on the political dynamics of autocracies, comparative politics has only just started to examine the intersection of authoritarianism and AI. The general expectation appears to be that AI will amplify existing efforts in surveillance and disinformation, though the ramifications for domestic political dynamics remain largely unexamined. This paper thus aims to contribute to understanding how nationalist concerns over AI emerge in autocracies like Russia. The paper’s methodology involves a systematic analysis of the Kremlin’s public framing of AI in Russia, utilizing a corpus of texts (chiefly public statements, interviews, and broadcast transcripts) drawn from the Integrum database for the period of 2018-2021. The public framing data will then be used to compile a process-tracing account of Russia’s push into AI—that is, to examine how public framing changes over time in relation to events and the hypothesized array of competitive stances adopted by elite actors.

Author

• Paul Goode, Carleton University