Cross-Pressured by Issue Ownership: New Targets for Campaign Persuasion Efforts

• In Event: The Campaign, Issues and Salience

Abstract

In a hyper-polarized political environment, and with the increase in partisan sorting, party identification has taken the center stage. Therefore, studies that do examine the effects of persuasion focus on weak partisans, leaning partisans, or independents, who have no party attachment. However, these individuals are also the least politically informed, and pay the least attention to politics. This makes reaching them with campaign persuasion messages very difficult. My theory combines literature on persuasion, cross-pressures, and issue ownership to 1) identify a new kind of cross-pressured voter and 2) develop a campaign strategy to reach and persuade these voters. Specifically, partisans who think the other party could better a salient issue are cross-pressured, and campaigns can prime these cross-pressured voters with these issues to increase the likelihood of partisan defection.

The focus for much of the campaign literature is on party identification, which is strongly predictive of vote choice. Mobilization strategies benefit from strong party identification, because they encourage voters to vote for an in-party candidate. Conventional wisdom suggests that persuasion strategies are doomed to fail, as they are designed to convince voters to reject partisan ties and vote for the other party’s candidate. In a political environment where party attachments are strong, mobilization appears to be the more effective strategy. Rather than working to break strong partisan ties, mobilization energizes partisans and rallies them to vote for their party’s candidate.

Given that party identification is so strong, most persuasion theories focus on independents, who have no party attachment, or weak and leaning partisans, whose party attachment is not very strong. Because persuasion aims to break party ties, targeting those with no party ties or weak party ties should be the most effective. The problem with targeting weak and leaning partisans and independents is that these people don’t pay much attention to politics, so it is difficult for political messaging to reach them. Weak partisans and independents have lower levels of political media consumption, pay less attention to campaigns, and are more tuned out of politics in general than strong partisans. Therefore, any persuasion efforts are less likely to actually reach those who might be the most persuadable. Harkening back to Zaller (1993), voters must receive, accept, and successfully sample (RAS) messages in order for them to be effective. Persuasion efforts that target tuned-out weak partisans and independents are less effective than strategies that target voters who are open to political messages.

One place to start to find persuadable voters is thinking about cross-pressures. Theories of cross-pressures focus on what voters consider when making a voting decision, and if these considerations are in conflict. Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee (1954) describe a cross-pressured voter who belongs to social groups that are constituencies of the Republican Party, and some social groups which are constituencies of the Democratic Party. More recently, Hillygus and Shields (2008) argue that voters can be cross-pressured by party identification and issue positions. These kinds of voters have a partisan attachment to one party, but agree with the position that the other party takes on a salient issue. These could be pro-life Democrats or Republicans who support green energy. In this case, voters are considering both their party identification and their issue positions to make a voting decision. Again, because these considerations are in conflict, the voter is cross-pressured.

Combining theories of cross-pressure and issue ownership, I develop a new theory of persuasion which relies on specific messaging specially designed for voter targets. Party identification explains a large portion of vote choice, and voters first look to their own as a heuristic. However, they may defect if they think the other party can better handle their most important issue. Numerous studies have shown that campaigns can activate party identification, but I argue campaigns can also activate latent feelings of issue ownership.

Using data from the 2020 ANES, I will explore what these new cross-pressured voters look like, and determine the major predictors of being cross-pressured. Using experimental data from the 2020 and 2021 CES, I will examine the effects of cross-pressured respondents being exposed to candidates discussing owned issues. Finally, using field data in coordination with Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s campaign, I will determine if cross-pressured voters are more likely to vote for the out-party candidate when primed with a message about an owned issue.

Author

• Sarah Heise, University of Texas at Austin