Examining Associations of Voter Turnout in 2021 VA Gubernatorial Election

• In Event: Listening and Reacting to Communication

Abstract

What happened in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial race, and what does that mean for the Democratic Party moving forward? The upset between Glenn Youngkin (R) and Terry McAuliffe (D) came as a surprise to many, given that weeks prior to the election depicted McAuliffe as a clear leader in the polls (Constantino, 2021). Moreover, Republicans across the state won local elections as well, suggesting the Republican shift was driven by various factors. It has been shown that more voters turned out than ever before and that turnout was driven by Republican voters (The Virginia Public Access Project, 2021; Mellnik et al., 2021). Bell (2021) notes other important factors that may have come into play during the campaign season, including Youngkin’s focus on local issues such as parental involvement in schools, the unenthusiastic nomination of a previous Virginia Governor over that of more diverse candidates, a lack of strategic local campaigning by McAuliffe, and Youngkin’s ability to distance himself from strict Trump ties, among other reasons. In this instance, it is clear that Youngkin’s campaign strategies, as well as the influence of Republican candidates across the state, resonated with voters in the 2021 elections.
If it is true that “words do the work of politics” (Graham et al., 2009), it seems imperative to understand the ways Republicans are communicating with their audiences and whether these messages might drive shifts in political attitudes, or if they instead lag or redirect pre-existing ones. Here, we use linked voter data, school board campaign contributions data, and Twitter data to evaluate associations between 1) engagement with pandemic-related school policies versus critical race theory Twitter posts, 2) gubernatorial election turnout (pending approval and receipt of this data), and 3) school board campaign contributions. Specifically, we consider a) whether increased contributions to school board campaigns immediately prior to the elections came from new contributors or contributors who previously contributed only to other types of campaigns (such as sheriff campaigns and campaigns of liberal, moderate, or conservative national politicians) and b) whether Twitter users who engaged with pandemic-related school policy posts versus critical race theory posts were more or less likely to contribute to school board campaigns and turn out to vote in the gubernatorial election. Additionally, we examine related Twitter activity, turnout, and contributions data across other states, including New Jersey, Florida, and California.

References
Bell, L. C. (2021). What happened?: In Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election, increasing turnout for Republicans showed that campaigns still matter, and politics are still local. USApp–American Politics and Policy Blog.
Constantino, A. (2021). Democrats take the lead in early voting in Virginia governor’s race, but GOP could close the gap on election day. CNBC.com. Retrieved 17 January 2022, from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html.
Graham, J., Haidt, J., & Nosek, B. A. (2009). Liberals and conservatives rely on different sets of moral foundations. Journal of personality and social psychology, 96(5), 1029.
The Virginia Public Access Project. (2021, November 4). Record Turnout in Tuesday Election. Retrieved January 17, 2022, from https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2021-election-turnout/
Mellnik, T., Karklis, L., & Blanco, A. (2021, November 3). How Youngkin shifted the vote toward Republicans across Virginia. The Washington Post. Retrieved January 17, 2022, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/11/03/virginia-votes-shift-democrats-republicans/

Authors

• Breanna E. Green, Cornell University

• Sarah Shugars, Rutgers University

• William Hobbs, Cornell University