Transnational News and Intergroup Tolerance: Survey Evidence from Ukraine

• In Event: Identity and Public Opinion in Ukraine and Russia

Abstract

To what extent are the effects of transnational media on intergroup tolerance in divided societies contingent on geopolitical conflict? Specifically, the paper examines whether residents of Ukraine who get most of their news from the EU sources systematically differ from residents who get most of their news from the Russian sources when it comes to accepting ethnic, religious, and national “others” as family members, friends, neighbors, coworkers and residents of their country. Mainstream political communication theories suggest these effects could be particularly strong due to the transnationally divergent social norms between EU and Russia in the context of Ukraine’s ethno-regional political and social cleavages. The study tests multiple hypotheses with pooled survey data of Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences opinion surveys conducted in 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2021 (N=7,600). In addition to standard regression adjustment techniques, the study uses stratification, restriction and matching, probability score matching, and inverse probability weighting to tease out the role of the EU vs Russian news sources in shaping inclusive and exclusionist intergroup attitudes. The analysis also tests media consumption effects with different outgroup types—specifically controlling for potential effects of explicit kin-state association (ethnic Russians from Russia and ethnic Ukrainians outside Ukraine); as well as implicit associations with the world’s strongest military power (American citizens); with the EU membership (Poles, Hungarians, Germans); with NATO membership v. distinct ethnoreligious identity (Turks); with shared NATO/EU aspiration and territorial occupation by Russia (Georgians); with repressive autocratic rule (Belarus); and with victimization and scapegoating history (Jews, Roma). The analysis also controls for standard sociodemographic characteristics of survey respondents and region of residence in Ukraine. Preliminary findings indicate that consumption of news from the EU results in more inclusive attitudes across different outgroups, while the effects of Russian news consumption are mixed. Attitudes toward American citizens and ethnic Russians, in particular, demonstrate how the news amplify geopolitical polarization, while attitudes toward the Jews indicate that transnational norms against anti-Semitism may cut across geopolitical cleavages, but may also amplify them.

Author

• Mikhail A. Alexseev, San Diego State University