Climate Disasters Mobilize the Rich and Suppress the Poor: Turnout Post-Harvey

• In Event: Mobilization in Eventful Times

Abstract

The adverse effects of climate change are increasingly felt in the U.S., and will continue to worsen. Prior work on the impacts of climate disasters link exposure to a host of adverse outcomes and to changing preferences toward climate policy, but its relationship to political participation remains an open question. Drawing on prior work linking victimization to political participation, we posit that following exposure to a climate disaster, the general population will become mobilized while underprivileged segments will exhibit the opposite pattern. To examine the impact of exposure to climate disasters on political participation, we use the case of Hurricane Harvey, which was the costliest environmental disaster in U.S. history, and look at how exposure impacted voter turnout in the Greater Houston Area. The event, which brought unprecedented levels of flooding, property damage, and displacement to the greater Houston area in late summer 2017, allows us to study pre- and post disaster behaviors of affected individuals. Using a difference-in-difference design with data from voter files and satellite flood maps, we show that the Harvey floods changed political participation patterns in Houston. Whereas exposure to flooding mobilized most segments of the population, leading to increasing likelihood of voting, individuals from poorer neighborhoods instead became less likely to vote. Our findings have direct implications for environmental justice and democratic representation, illustrating a clear pathway for climate change, through increasingly disenfranchised populations, to exacerbate existing social inequalities.

Authors

• Ted Hsuan Yun Chen, George Mason University

• Christopher J. Fariss, University of Michigan

• Xu Xu, Princeton University