Conspiracy Theories and Election Fraud in 2020

• In Event: Knowledge, Misperceptions, and Conspiracies

Abstract

A prominent explanation for the prevalence of conspiracy theories are they are a form of motivated reasoning, most common among liberals and conservatives who are highly knowledgeable about politics but with low political trust (Miller, Sanders and Farhart 2016). Miller, Farhart and Sanders (2021) find electoral losers are more likely to engage in conspiratorial thinking than electoral winners. Results based on three election years in the U.S. (2016, 2018, 2020) provide consistent support for the “conspiracies are for losers” hypothesis and discuss the implications of our findings. It is assumed that losers are partisan losers

Previous research has focused on partisans rather than non-partisans. Are independents more immune to conspiratorial thinking, since by definition they are outside of party conflict? Yet independents have long been shown to have lower political trust and efficacy (Donovan and Bowler 2003), possibly making them more susceptible to conspiracy theories? How do independents--including hidden partisans/leaners and pure independents--versus partisans' view concerns about widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election? Does it matter what type of fraud?

On January 6, an attack on the US Capital occurred by a violet mob of Trump supporters as Congress met to certify President Biden’s 2020 election victory. The riot was immediately preceded by a rally in which Trump claimed he was the rightful winner of the 2020 presidential election and that he lost due to fraud. The conspiracy theory known as the Big Steal was widely promoted on social media and conservative podcasts.

President Trump was a vocal opponent of the conspiracy theory the Big Seal, alleging he was the rightful winner of the 2020 presidential election and lost due to fraud. A unique survey experiment placed on the 2020 Congressional Election Survey (CES) of 1000 US adults in November 2020, before Jan 6th, find nationally finds over 30 percent of Americans believed in election fraud immediately post the 2020 election, roughly the same proportion identified in previous research as having a latent predisposition for conspiratorial thinking (Uscinski 2014). A 2021 Washington Post/University of Maryland poll found thirty percent of Americans say there is solid evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election. Among people who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, 69 percent say Biden was not legitimately elected.

Building on work by Klar and Krupnikov (2016) on independents as hidden partisans, the results of the survey experiment find more than ¾ of Republicans believed there was widespread fraud in 2020 regardless of the source (immigrants, mail ballots, dead people voting, or general fraud) etc. and independent leaners have stronger opinions (positive and negative) than strong partisans on election fraud in 2020. Independents leaning Republicans have opinions on election fraud similar to strong Republicans and independents leaning Democrat have attitudes similar to strong Democrats. Moderate partisans and pure independents were the most likely to differ from paratisans.

Rather than solely the domain of partisans, non-partisan defined as partisan leaners widely believe in conspiracy theories. The research provides support for Klar and Krupnikov (2016) arguments about independents as hidden partisans. The experiment is being replicated on a 2022 YouGov survey of 1000 respondents.

Author

• Ev Marie Dowling, University of California, Davis