Understanding Democratic Backsliding through Text-as-Data Analysis

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Over the past decade, research on democratic backsliding has revealed patterns of growing restrictions on civil and political rights, rule of law, and opposition movements. To date, however, we lack systematic understanding on how state-led trends actually affect the behavior of citizens, activists, and elected officials. How does democratic backsliding affect the behavior of opposition supporters? To what extent does repression alter activist and politician strategies? When can would-be autocrats influence the ability of the opposition to participate in democratic politics?
This panel addresses such questions using new text-as-data sources from understudied country cases, providing insights into how democratic backsliding manifests in popular and elite discourse around the globe. Davis and Morse employ Facebook data collected over a period of democratic backsliding in Côte d’Ivoire to theorize about the impact of disregard for term limits on opposition and incumbent strategies on social media. Jakli analyzes social media advertising campaigns purchased by the incumbent party to assess how early-stage autocratizers can induce political apathy among the opposition. Shen-Bayh and Choi examine oppression of opposition within parliament, comparing rhetoric in debates during a period of democratic turmoil in Zambia. Finally, through analysis of millions of tweets of Venezuelan activists, Siegel and Esberg show that exile fundamentally alters how opposition expresses dissent online. Together, these papers deepen understanding of how democratic backsliding affects the behavior of citizens, activists, and elected officials across the globe.

Sub Unit

• Division 44: Democracy and Autocracy

Chair

• Jennifer Pan Stanford University

Discussants

• Tamar Mitts Columbia University

• Luwei Ying University of California, Los Angeles

Individual Presentations

• The Social Media Impact of Democratic Backsliding: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire - Justine Davis, University of Michigan; Irene Morse, University of Michigan

• Political Apathy as Autocratization Strategy: Evidence from Hungary - Laura Jakli, Harvard University

• Democratic Backsliding on the Legislative Floor: Evidence from Zambia - Fiona Shen-Bayh, William & Mary; Donghyun Danny Choi, Brown University