Resurgent Authoritarian Influence: New High-Frequency, Cross-National Data

• In Event: Foreign Aid, Democracy and Human Rights

Abstract

Over the last 15 years, powerful non-democracies have become more autocratic and more assertive in their foreign policy. This resurgence of authoritarian influence (RAI) over less powerful nations, and the contemporaneous erosion of democratic freedoms in many countries, has caused anxiety about the impact of increased RAI on levels of democracy. To date, the absence of quantitative data on authoritarian influence has limited systematic investigation of this relationship. This paper has three objectives. First, we introduce a new, high-frequency dataset tracking influence by Russia and China in 45 low- and middle-income countries between 2012 and 2022. Second, we describe trends in RAI since 2012, including the tools used to influence target countries and how their use varies across time, space, and the influencing power. Third, we assess empirically whether the deployment of common RAI tools is predictive of attacks on democratic freedoms in target countries. In doing so, we provide one of the first tests of an empirical claim driving high-level decision-making in foreign policy and international advocacy.

Authors

• Jeremy Springman, University of Pennsylvania

• Erik M. Wibbels, University of Pennsylvania