Of Moderates and Radicals

• In Event: Repression and Dissent: New Directions in Research

Abstract

Under what conditions does exclusion lead opposition groups to radicalize? When do they become more moderate instead? To contextualize contradictory arguments about the consequences of exclusion, I develop a framework centering the cross-generational reproduction of factional tensions within opposition groups. I argue that exclusion exacerbates pre-existing tensions between moderate and radical factions and shifts the balance of power between them, increasing the ability of the less impacted faction to dictate the organization’s direction. Over time, repeated episodes of exclusion favor moderate factions who survive due to their avoidance of confrontation. Yet their prioritization of survival often leads them to compromise with incumbent regimes who contain their influence and limit reform. The failure of moderate factions to bring about change and the recent return to staunch authoritarianism has led to the creation of new cohorts of youth activists pursuing radical forms of resistance. To highlight these trends, I examine the trajectory of the Egyptian Islamist, Iraqi Communist, and Palestinian Nationalist movements. I detail how inter-factional tensions were reproduced over time and leverage semi-structured interviews with activists to understand the consequences of exclusion and factionalism on the political strategies and ideologies of contemporary youth activists.

Author

• Nasir Almasri, Massachusetts Institute of Technology