Post-February 2022 Russian Migrant Attitudes: Evidence from Armenia and Georgia

• In Event: Public Opinion and Political Trust in Post-Communist Countries

Abstract

In this study we examine the socio-political attitudes of Russians who fled Russia in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first such large-scale research project to be conducted. Moreover, as the survey was fielded shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial general mobilization in September 2022, we are able to sub-set men who fled Russia specifically to avoid being conscripted into the military as opposed to those of both genders who left for other reasons (e.g., economic, political).

We sampled Russians in Armenia and Georgia (n>800 in both cases), two countries chosen because they do not require Russians to obtain visas, have a good number of Russian-speakers already resident there, and are relatively close by/inexpensive to travel to. As such, they have represented destinations of choice for those leaving Russia in the last year. Out of necessity, we had to employ a convenience sample, with trained enumerators seeking out areas where Russian newcomers are known to congregate (e.g., public transportation hubs, internet cafes) in the capital cities of Yerevan and Tbilisi. The survey consisted of 30 questions that enumerators recorded the answers to on iPads, along with relevant data about the composure and ease of respondents (given the sensitive nature of the project). Specifically, we asked questions about attitudes towards Putin’s regime, understandings of the history and statehood of Ukraine, support for the war/”special military operation,” level of civic engagement, and attitudes towards liberalism, as measured through questions addressing LGBTQ+ rights, domestic violence, political activism, and freedom of expression.

The preliminary results of this study, which we are still analyzing, paint a fascinating picture of why Russians have left Russia and how they might compare to those who remained (questions were structured in such a way as to largely mirror internal Russian surveys conducted by the Levada-Centre). As such, we believe the proposed paper will be of significant interest to the scholarly community given that it not only presents novel empirical evidence but also addresses important methodological concerns about how social scientists can most productively sample populations of displaced persons.

Authors

• George Soroka, Harvard University

• Isabelle DeSisto, Princeton University

• Félix Krawatzek, Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS)