Sources and Consequences of Latin American Polarization: A Comparative View

• In Event: Polarization in Latin America: Multiple Dimensions and Varied Effects

Abstract

Us vs Them political polarization in Latin America has been rising since 2000 in keeping with global trends, but faster than world averages since 2015. What are the sources of polarization in the region, and what may be the consequences for democracy? Using V-Dem data to compare country-specific and regional trends with worldwide trends in political polarization, this paper presents first cycles of polarization and depolarization in Latin America and their association with democratic health since the democratic transitions of the 1980s. It then identifies contemporary cleavages in specific countries by analyzing the themes of major protests since 2018 and the electoral appeals and political cleavages highlighted by presidential candidates in elections posing polarized choices to the electorate in 2021 (Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Honduras) and expected in 2022 (Colombia and Brazil). In our prior global research, we have found that identity-based cleavages (racial/ethnicity, language, religious, sexual orientation and gender-based identities) appear to create more entrenched polarization with the potential for democratic backsliding, whereas economic-based cleavages (inequality, class-based stratification and socio-economic exclusion) are more likely to be negotiable and create more cyclical rather than long-lasting polarization. Therefore, identifying the nature of the cleavages and political appeals in contemporary polarized Latin America is an important step in identifying its relationship with democratic resilience, and the potential for democratic backsliding.

Author

• Jennifer McCoy, Georgia State University