Persuasiveness of Undemocratic Narratives from Authoritarian States

• In Event: Poster Session: Democracy and Autocracy (II) & Class and Inequality
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Democracy and Autocracy (II)

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global democratic backsliding and the rise of authoritarianism, dealing with sharp power projected from authoritarian states to democracies is becoming an impending issue. Unlike hard power, which is based on economic and military power, and soft power, which is based on the attractiveness of culture and values, sharp power refers to the power exercised informally for the purpose of widening divisions within a democracy and creating favorable public opinion toward authoritarian regimes through propaganda and public diplomacy. Playing a central role in sharp power are undemocratic narratives that aim at undermining confidence in democracy. The persuasiveness of undemocratic narratives is understudied, although some important works have been published recently (e.g., Mader, Marinov, & Schoen, 2022; Mattingly et al., 2022). In particular, Japan has not been at the forefront of sharp power penetration to date, but not only is Japan’s “democratic consolidation” not necessarily robust, but its strong geographic, economic, and cultural ties with China leave room for the permeation of undemocratic narratives.

This study conducts a pre-registered survey experiment in Japan to examine the persuasiveness of undemocratic narratives that favor authoritarian states. Specifically, we design a conceptual replication of Mader et al. (2022), who examined the persuasiveness of pro-Russian narratives among the Germans. We test the persuasive power of undemocratic narratives relative to that of mainstream narratives in democratic countries on contentious issues that, if persuaded, would create favorable public opinion for authoritarian states such as China and Russia. As an illustration, we present the following vignettes on the massive anti-government protests in Hong Kong in 2019.

“Following the massive anti-government protests in Hong Kong, China enacted the Hong Kong National Security Law in June 2020, which strictly prohibits anti-government speech and behavior. [Treatment is inserted here] How would you evaluate China’s response to the demonstrations in Hong Kong?”

The dependent variable is measured with a single five-point scale ranging from 1 “Very positive” to 5 “Very negative.”

Treatment:
1. Nil (control group)
2. It has been revealed that during the protests in Hong Kong, the U.S. covertly intervened and instigated under the guise of promoting democracy.
3. According to Chinese government officials, it has been revealed that during the protests in Hong Kong, the U.S. covertly intervened and instigated under the guise of promoting democracy.
4. It has been revealed that the protests in Hong Kong were spontaneous actions of Hong Kong citizens standing up for freedom and democracy.
5. According to government officials in Western countries, it has been revealed that the protests in Hong Kong were spontaneous actions of Hong Kong citizens standing up for freedom and democracy.

The control group (Group 1) is provided with minimal context and does not include narratives. For Group 2, we present narratives that the Chinese and Hong Kong government propagates, and for Group 3, we further specify the source of the narratives as “Chinese government officials.” For Group 4, in contrast, we present the mainstream narratives in Western democratic countries, and for Group 5, we add “government officials in Western countries” as a source. Using the control group as a baseline, we estimate the persuadability of the Japanese public by undemocratic and mainstream narratives. The identically formatted experiments will be conducted with the within-subject design on 12 topics, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the denouncement of democracy using race, gun control, and LGBTQ issues in the United States. In addition to the treatment effect, we will use the level of knowledge about international politics as a moderating variable and examine the treatment effect heterogeneity to see if the persuasive effect of undemocratic narratives is particularly large in the low-knowledge group.

Theoretical implications of the permeability of undemocratic narratives in Japan, which has the longest history of democracy in East Asia, for the prospect of democratic backsliding will be discussed.

Authors

• Yuan Zhou, Kobe University

• Lungta Seki, Koç University

• Tetsuro Kobayashi, Waseda University

• Asako Miura, Osaka University