Nostalgia, and Influence: China's Rehabilitation of Historical Overseas Development Projects since 1949

• In Event: The Causes and Effects of China’s Economic Statecraft

Abstract

How do pre-existing narratives–whether local, national, or global in scope–shape attitudes toward Chinese development projects in the Global South? A growing body of research examines public opinion in host countries toward Chinese infrastructure and other projects along the Belt and Road Initiative. However, no studies have rigorously tested whether and how widespread, existing narratives about China and its development cooperation can shape individual-level attitudes and affect China’s international image. This research gap is surprising given that narratives about Chinese development finance, such as those depicting China as a “rogue donor” or as engaging in “debt trap diplomacy,” have spread rapidly following China’s re-emergence as a major donor and lender in the Global South.

I argue that pre-existing narratives often condition attitudes in host countries toward infrastructure projects as well as the donors and lenders that finance and implement them. Narratives are a cognitive tool that both elites and members of the public use to simplify and process information about financially and operationally complex infrastructure projects. Rather than digesting new information without context, individuals try to make sense of it by drawing on relevant, pre-existing information often contained in narratives.

This study investigates whether and how pre-existing narratives about Chinese development finance that exist at local, national, or global levels condition popular responses to Chinese infrastructure projects. I test several pre-registered hypotheses using a set original survey experiments administered to respondents in Indonesia and Vietnam, two of the largest host countries of Chinese infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia. Experiments involve both hypothetical and real-world Chinese infrastructure projects. The findings suggest that prior exposure and buy-in to narratives about Chinese development finance significantly affect whether and why individuals are supportive of new infrastructure projects financed by China’s government in their communities. The findings contribute to research in international relations on the political economy of aid, foreign aid and public opinion, and Chinese development finance.

Authors

• Austin Strange, University of Hong Kong

• Songtao Duan, Pennsylvania State University