The Determinants of Displacement and Return: A Micro-Founded Global Analysis

• In Event: Policies and Attitudes towards Refugees in the Global South

Abstract

A large body of scholarship explores the determinants of forcible displacement and, separately, their protracted displacement. In this project, we reconsider these relationships, making both theoretical and empirical contributions. On the former, we propose a shift from the oft-referenced push-pull framework to one that additionally accounts directly for both restrictions on movement as well as diversionary flows. Restrictions on individuals seeking to flee and, separately, on individuals seeking to return home are significant yet largely absent from existing academic research. For instance, while much academic and policy focus concerns the potential effects of a changing global climate on displacement, our work explores the potential immobilizing effects of severe weather and natural disasters in preventing (rather than prompting) international flows. On the latter, we 1) use newly released data on refugee flows to analyze the determinants of displacement in a manner heretofore not possible; and 2) develop various fine-grained measures derived from satellite imagery and other data sources to carry out macro-empirical testing using variables with precise micro-foundations.

Authors

• Andrew C Shaver, University of California, Merced

• Benjamin Curtiss Krick, Duke University

• Teagan Zuniga, University of California - Merced

• Isabella Caldarelli